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Keith's Midterm Cheat SheetPowered byOath

Most political donations go to the races everyone is already talking about. But Keith's Midterm Cheat Sheet takes a different approach. Drawing on publicly available polling and election results alongside Oath's proprietary election data, I've identified the House races where additional dollars can have the greatest impact on the outcome. These may not be the most famous contests in the country, but they are often the races where your contribution can go the furthest in helping flip a seat.

The 5 Most Flippable House Races
TX-35
05
Johnny Garcia
Johnny Garcia is the Bexar County sheriff, in office since age 21. He began his career in the county jail leading a second-chance rehabilitation program, joined the SWAT Crisis Negotiation Team handling high-pressure situations, and helped make the sheriff's office one of the nation's most transparent law-enforcement agencies.
Race Snapshot
Carlos De La Cruz
Republican Candidate
'24 House Margin
District Redrawn
'24 Pres Margin
R+10.4
GOP cash on hand
$343K more
Donate to Johnny Garcia ▸
MT-01
04
Sam Forstag
Sam Forstag is a union leader and smokejumper — a firefighter who parachutes into remote country to stop fires before they spread. As an organizer and advocate at the state legislature he fought for libraries, healthcare, and constitutional freedoms, and as a union vice president he stood up to Elon Musk's attempt to gut public-land agencies.
Race Snapshot
Aaron Flint
Republican Candidate
'24 House Margin
R+7.7
'24 Pres Margin
R+11.5
GOP cash on hand
$650K more
Donate to Sam Forstag ▸
NJ-07
03
Rebecca Bennett
Rebecca Bennett is a former U.S. Navy helicopter pilot and National Guard air officer who graduated flight school at the top of her class — the only helicopter pilot to attend Navy Test Pilot School. After earning her MBA she chose a career in healthcare, driven by a desire to help patients.
Race Snapshot
Tom Kean Jr.
Republican Incumbent
'24 House Margin
R+5.4
'24 Pres Margin
R+1.2
GOP cash on hand
$2.5M more
Donate to Rebecca Bennett ▸
AZ-06
02
Joanna Mendoza
Joanna Mendoza is a former U.S. Marine Corps drill instructor and Navy veteran who deployed to Iraq and Afghanistan. She went on to earn a master's in leadership and serve as a nonprofit leader, policy expert, and congressional staffer fighting for common-sense solutions.
Race Snapshot
Juan Ciscomani
Republican Incumbent
'24 House Margin
R+2.5
'24 Pres Margin
R+0.7
GOP cash on hand
$300K more
Donate to Joanna Mendoza ▸
CA-48
01
Marni von Wilpert
Marni von Wilpert is a San Diego City Councilmember and former prosecutor. In the City Attorney's office she cracked down on price gouging, the opioid industry, and polluters. On the council she authored California's first ban on untraceable ghost guns, launched affordable-housing grants for teachers, and raised wages.
Race Snapshot
Jim Desmond
Republican Candidate
'24 House Margin
District Redrawn
'24 Pres Margin
D+3.4
GOP cash on hand
$1.5M more
Donate to Marni von Wilpert ▸
The 3 Most Winnable Senate Races
ME SENATE
03
Troy Jackson
Troy Jackson is a logger and the former President of the Maine Senate. As a logger he led a blockade at the Canadian border to win higher wages for American loggers. Across six years in the state House and fourteen in the state Senate, he helped pass laws lowering prescription drug prices, protecting abortion access, and providing free school meals.
Race Snapshot
Oath: Toss Up
Susan Collins
Republican Incumbent
'24 Senate Margin
No '24 Race
'24 Pres Margin
D+6.9
GOP cash on hand
$11M+
Donate to Troy Jackson ▸
AK SENATE
02
Mary Peltola
Mary Peltola is a former congresswoman and state legislator — the first Democrat to win a statewide Alaska election in decades, when she flipped the state's at-large district. In the legislature she helped build a bipartisan Bush Caucus, and she has also served as a city council member, judge, and executive commissioner of a fish commission. In Congress, land management was one of her central focuses.
Race Snapshot
Oath: Toss Up
Dan Sullivan
Republican Incumbent
'24 House Margin
R+2.4
'24 Pres Margin
R+13.1
GOP cash on hand
$25M more
Donate to Mary Peltola ▸
MI SENATE
01
Abdul El-Sayed
Abdul El-Sayed is a physician, epidemiologist, and union member who served as health director for both Detroit and Wayne County. He removed lead from Detroit's elementary schools, made Narcan widely accessible, and led a program that canceled medical debt for Michiganders. He also served on Joe Biden's Unity Task Force for Healthcare.
Race Snapshot
Oath: Toss Up
Mike Rogers
Republican Candidate
'24 Senate Margin
D+0.3
'24 Pres Margin
R+1.4
GOP cash on hand
$2M more
Donate to Abdul El-Sayed ▸