Midterm Cheat SheetOath

Keith's Midterm Cheat Sheet

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Most political donations go to the races everyone is already talking about. But Keith's Midterm Cheat Sheet takes a different approach — pairing public polling and election results with Oath's proprietary election data to find the House races where additional dollars can have the greatest impact on flipping a seat.

The 5 Most Flippable House Races

05
Johnny Garcia
TX-35
Donate to Johnny Garcia ▸
Johnny Garcia is the Bexar County sheriff, in office since age 21. He began his career in the county jail leading a second-chance rehabilitation program, joined the SWAT Crisis Negotiation Team handling high-pressure situations, and helped make the sheriff's office one of the nation's most transparent law-enforcement agencies.
Race Snapshot
CARLOS DE LA CRUZ
GOP Candidate
'24 House
District Redrawn
'24 Pres
R+10.4
GOP cash on hand
$343K more
04
Sam Forstag
MT-01
Donate to Sam Forstag ▸
Sam Forstag is a union leader and smokejumper — a firefighter who parachutes into remote country to stop fires before they spread. As an organizer and advocate at the state legislature he fought for libraries, healthcare, and constitutional freedoms, and as a union vice president he stood up to Elon Musk's attempt to gut public-land agencies.
Race Snapshot
Aaron Flint
GOP Candidate
'24 House
R+7.7
'24 Pres
R+11.5
GOP cash on hand
$650K more
03
Rebecca Bennett
NJ-07
Donate to Rebecca Bennett ▸
Rebecca Bennett is a former U.S. Navy helicopter pilot and National Guard air officer who graduated flight school at the top of her class — the only helicopter pilot to attend Navy Test Pilot School. After earning her MBA she chose a career in healthcare, driven by a desire to help patients.
Race Snapshot
Tom Kean Jr.
GOP Incumbent
'24 House
R+5.4
'24 Pres
R+1.2
GOP cash on hand
$2.5M more
02
Joanna Mendoza
AZ-06
Donate to Joanna Mendoza ▸
Joanna Mendoza is a former U.S. Marine Corps drill instructor and Navy veteran who deployed to Iraq and Afghanistan. She went on to earn a master's in leadership and serve as a nonprofit leader, policy expert, and congressional staffer fighting for common-sense solutions.
Race Snapshot
Juan Ciscomani
GOP Incumbent
'24 House
R+2.5
'24 Pres
R+0.7
GOP cash on hand
$300K more
01
Marni von Wilpert
CA-48
Donate to Marni von Wilpert ▸
Marni von Wilpert is a San Diego City Councilmember and former prosecutor. In the City Attorney's office she cracked down on price gouging, the opioid industry, and polluters. On the council she authored California's first ban on untraceable ghost guns, launched affordable-housing grants for teachers, and raised wages.
Race Snapshot
Jim Desmond
GOP Candidate
'24 House
District Redrawn
'24 Pres
D+3.4
GOP cash on hand
$1.5M more

Can't pick just one?

Split it evenly across all five. One gift, divided equally among the most flippable races — so every dollar lands where it matters.

$10
TX-35
$10
MT-01
$10
NJ-07
$10
AZ-06
$10
CA-48
Split $50 across all 5 ▸
// Divided evenly — $10 to each of the 5 races.
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