Midterm Cheat SheetOath

Keith's Midterm Cheat Sheet

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Most political donations go to the races everyone is already talking about. But Keith's Midterm Cheat Sheet takes a different approach — pairing public polling and election results with Oath's proprietary election data to find the House and Senate races where additional dollars can have the greatest impact on flipping and winning a seat.

The 5 Most Flippable House Races

05
Johnny Garcia
TX-35
Donate to Johnny Garcia ▸
Johnny Garcia is the Bexar County sheriff, in office since age 21. He began his career in the county jail leading a second-chance rehabilitation program, joined the SWAT Crisis Negotiation Team handling high-pressure situations, and helped make the sheriff's office one of the nation's most transparent law-enforcement agencies.
Race Snapshot Oath: Lean R
CARLOS DE LA CRUZ
GOP Candidate
'24 House
District Redrawn
'24 Pres
R+10.4
GOP cash on hand
$54K more
04
Sam Forstag
MT-01
Donate to Sam Forstag ▸
Sam Forstag is a union leader and smokejumper — a firefighter who parachutes into remote country to stop fires before they spread. As an organizer and advocate at the state legislature he fought for libraries, healthcare, and constitutional freedoms, and as a union vice president he stood up to Elon Musk's attempt to gut public-land agencies.
Race Snapshot Oath: Lean R
Aaron Flint
GOP Candidate
'24 House
R+7.7
'24 Pres
R+11.5
Forstag cash edge
$50K more
03
Rebecca Bennett
NJ-07
Donate to Rebecca Bennett ▸
Rebecca Bennett is a former U.S. Navy helicopter pilot and National Guard air officer who graduated flight school at the top of her class — the only helicopter pilot to attend Navy Test Pilot School. After earning her MBA she chose a career in healthcare, driven by a desire to help patients.
Race Snapshot Oath: Toss Up
Tom Kean Jr.
GOP Incumbent
'24 House
R+5.4
'24 Pres
R+1.2
GOP cash on hand
$2.2M more
02
Joanna Mendoza
AZ-06
Donate to Joanna Mendoza ▸
Joanna Mendoza is a former U.S. Marine Corps drill instructor and Navy veteran who deployed to Iraq and Afghanistan. She went on to earn a master's in leadership and serve as a nonprofit leader, policy expert, and congressional staffer fighting for common-sense solutions.
Race Snapshot Oath: Toss Up
Juan Ciscomani
GOP Incumbent
'24 House
R+2.5
'24 Pres
R+0.7
Mendoza cash edge
$870K more
01
Marni von Wilpert
CA-48
Donate to Marni von Wilpert ▸
Marni von Wilpert is a San Diego City Councilmember and former prosecutor. In the City Attorney's office she cracked down on price gouging, the opioid industry, and polluters. On the council she authored California's first ban on untraceable ghost guns, launched affordable-housing grants for teachers, and raised wages.
Race Snapshot Oath: Lean D
Jim Desmond
GOP Candidate
'24 House
District Redrawn
'24 Pres
D+3.4
GOP cash on hand
$405K more

Can't pick just one?

Split it evenly across all five. One gift, divided equally among the most flippable races — so every dollar lands where it matters.

$10
TX-35
$10
MT-01
$10
NJ-07
$10
AZ-06
$10
CA-48
Split $50 across all 5 ▸
// Divided evenly — $10 to each of the 5 races.

The 4 Most Winnable Senate Races

04
Angie Nixon
FL SENATE
Donate to Angie Nixon ▸
Angie Nixon is a Florida state legislator and union organizer. She served as executive director of the Florida For All statewide coalition, which has helped register new voters. In the state legislature she helped lead the resistance to the state's unfair redistricting and championed expanded childcare. She also owns Cafe Resistance, a combined bookstore and coffee shop that promotes Black history.
Race Snapshot Oath: Likely R
Ashley Moody
GOP Incumbent
'24 Senate
No '24 Race
'24 Pres
R+13.1
GOP cash on hand
$8M+ more
03
Troy Jackson
ME SENATE
Donate to Troy Jackson ▸
Troy Jackson is a logger and the former President of the Maine Senate. As a logger he led a blockade at the Canadian border to win higher wages for American loggers. Across six years in the state House and fourteen in the state Senate, he helped pass laws lowering prescription drug prices, protecting abortion access, and providing free school meals.
Race Snapshot Oath: Toss Up
Susan Collins
GOP Incumbent
'24 Senate
No '24 Race
'24 Pres
D+6.9
GOP cash on hand
$11M+
02
Mary Peltola
AK SENATE
Donate to Mary Peltola ▸
Mary Peltola is a former congresswoman and state legislator — the first Democrat to win a statewide Alaska election in decades, when she flipped the state's at-large district. In the legislature she helped build a bipartisan Bush Caucus, and she has also served as a city council member, judge, and executive commissioner of a fish commission. In Congress, land management was one of her central focuses.
Race Snapshot Oath: Toss Up
Dan Sullivan
GOP Incumbent
'24 House
R+2.4
'24 Pres
R+13.1
GOP cash on hand
$25M more
01
Abdul El-Sayed
MI SENATE
Donate to Abdul El-Sayed ▸
Abdul El-Sayed is a physician, epidemiologist, and union member who served as health director for both Detroit and Wayne County. He removed lead from Detroit's elementary schools, made Narcan widely accessible, and led a program that canceled medical debt for Michiganders. He also served on Joe Biden's Unity Task Force for Healthcare.
Race Snapshot Oath: Toss Up
Mike Rogers
GOP Candidate
'24 Senate
D+0.3
'24 Pres
R+1.4
GOP cash on hand
$2M more

Can't pick just one?

Split it evenly across all four. One gift, divided equally among the most winnable Senate races — so every dollar lands where it matters.

$12.50
FL
$12.50
ME
$12.50
AK
$12.50
MI
Split $50 across all 4 ▸
// Divided evenly — $12.50 to each of the 4 races.
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